Moving To The Cloud Part Three: Shifting Data

For those that are still unsure, my last post ‘Microsoft’s Polar Data Centres and World Wireless System’ was posted on 1st April with good reason. It was an April Fool’s posting. I am glad to say Microsoft took it in good humor so I am still an MVP, for now.

The post is the final part in a series of three postings about my experience of moving to the cloud. In part one I outlined my problem. Essentially I was carrying around too much data (10 years of e-mails in a PST, 35G of historical data, much music) on my laptop and it was a data-loss disaster waiting to happen. Other frustrations included:

• time being eaten up in doing regular backups and maintenance
• having to haul my personal laptop everywhere to read my personal e-mail

I signed up to Office 365 with an intention of using this to solve some of my issues.

Part two talked about migrating my 12G pst file across to the Office 365 Exchange server. This was an excellent decision and, four months later, I have no regrets. I still have the niggle of the ‘on behalf of’ for mail sent out on gmail but this pales to the benefits. Mailbox usage is now at 7.4G

meaning I have gobbled up about 0.8G in four months which means I have about seven years to go before I reach my quota.

In this part I will talk about my movement of the 35G of data (plus music).

Going All-In With a Tablet

I live in Outlook. It is my one-stop shop for e-mails, rss feeds and tweets. Everything is in the one spot and, with Outlook rules, filtering what is important and what is ‘nice to read’ is relatively simple. I often see tablet devices, such as android tablets and the iPad but, without Outlook, their use for me is limited. Sure, you can read e-mail and then, with another app, you can check your calendar but the ‘dashboard’ of Outlook gives it to me in one hit. For me, it just works. I love the form-factor of these devices but the OS kills me.

To this end, I decided to take the plunge on a PC tablet aka slate. This is a device which looks like an iPad but runs Windows. CSG, where I work, has an annual gadget allowance of $500 so, as long as I could find a tablet for $500 or less, I could test the waters and not be out of pocket.

This gave me the opportunity to test out a site I have known about for a while, AliExpress. This is a retail site for the slightly more well-known Alibaba.com. Alibaba is a front-end for those manufacturing factories in places like China. If you want something, and brand is not so important, you can buy it on Alibaba; from bookmarks and necklaces to high-end electronics, it is there. In the case of Alibaba, you deal directly with the manufacturer and, generally, you will need to buy multiple units. Aliexpress deals mostly in single unit purchases and offers an escrow service as standard. In other words, when you pay, aliexpress holds the money and, when you receive the item and confirm it is what you paid for, they release it to the manufacturer. You get the goods at factory prices and there is no risk; everyone wins.

In the end, for US$472 I got:

• 10 inch touch-screen tablet running Windows 8 Consumer Preview edition
• Intel N570 dual core processor
• Wi-fi, bluetooth
• 2G RAM and 2*32G solid state drives and a micro-SD expansion slot

The memory was a bit low but, of all the machines on alibaba it was either high memory or a multicore processor but not both. My current laptop had 4G RAM but a single core processor and it drove me nuts so I was happy to try this configuration instead.

The transaction went without a hitch and I now use the tablet as my personal laptop. Generally I connect a USB mouse to it as my fingers are too large to interact with the screen on the higher resolutions, but this is fine and there are plenty of mini-mouses on the market. In hindsight I should have got 3G capability over bluetooth (it’s one or the other) but I can still tether to a device via USB so no big deal and wifi hotspots are becoming more and more commonplace.

So what does this have to do with moving the cloud? Well, a few things:

• This is a no-brand machine direct from a factory in Guangzhou, China. Quality is not guaranteed.
• It is running a beta operating system (Windows 8 Consumer Preview)
• It has only got 64G of space

These factors means I have a strong motivation NOT to store any data locally. For what its worth, after a couple of weeks, the hardware has had no issues and the OS has only blue-screened once. With the page file and search index files moved across to the second drive, and Office 2010 installed, I still had about 15G spare on the primary drive, so lots of rooms for programs.

Using the Right Cloud Solution For The Right Data

Another recent purchase was a Windows Phone, a Nokia Lumia 800. As well as the clear parallels in the interface between Windows Phone and Windows 8 Consumer Preview, another clear message is that the SkyDrive is going to be a big part of the plan. If you are not familiar with SkyDrive, Microsoft offers 25G of storage space, in the cloud, for free. The ability to easily access SkyDrive is baked into Windows 8 and Windows Phone with the clear intention that this become the central store for all devices.

There are a few issues to consider with SkyDrive

• There is no local cache of the data, so if you have no internet, you have no data
• File sizes are limited to 100M (this may be increased to 300M in the future)
• It is really only designed to handle certain file types i.e. pictures, videos and office files

The second two issues can be overcome by using Gladinet. Gladinet is a front-end to many different cloud storage services, including SkyDrive. It will auto-chunk larger files to comply with the 100M limit i.e. break them up for storage but still allow them to be re-constructed later and it will allow any kind of file to be uploaded with no auto-conversion which SkyDrive can do for things like picture files.

I got the Professional version through a scheme where you sign up for some online service in exchange for getting the software. In my case, I signed up for a trial online brain-training program and got the software for free. The Professional version made uploading my files much easier via the backup function.

After a couple of weeks, I had filled the 25G of space.

Via Gladinet, I can access this as a drive on my laptop (I have not installed Gladinet on the slate yet, but can still access the SkyDrive easily) and via WinDirStat can browse this drive to see where all the space is being taken up (although, as you can see above, the online interface to SkyDrive is also quite friendly in this regard).

So What About Data You Need When Offline?

One aspect a lot of cloud-zealots fail to cover is the issue of being offline. While SkyDrive is an excellent repository for archived data and things you need when online, there are some data you need offline. For example, I have a list of blog topics in a Word document. If I am on a flight with a few hours to spare, it is likely I will not have an internet connection but could use the time to write a blog article. This is where Mesh comes in. Mesh is part of the Microsoft Live Essentials. Mesh gives you 5G of additional storage which can be accessed in the cloud (think of it as a mini-SkyDrive) but it also syncs with a local folder on a PC or laptop.

I imagine SkyDrive and Mesh will eventually merge but, at this stage, this is not the case.

So, all up this gives me 30G of data for free, all in the cloud with the option of 5G of it being synced to a local folder. This is 5G short of my 35G of data which means I can use a third-party product like dropbox and a-drive, review whether I really need all my data or wait until Microsoft offer additional SkyDrive storage for a price. As you can see above, almost 5G of my SkyDrive is taken up by ‘Multimedia’. This is photos and videos of the kids. There are plenty of sites out there which house this for free so I am not overly concerned.

What About The Music?

For my music collection I am using Google Music, now Google Play. This lets me load up to 20,000 songs for free, all of which can be played via a browser. Although there is only an app for Android, I can happily play my music via Internet Explorer on my Windows Phone and set the web page as a tile, turning it into a pseudo-app. Hopefully, Google will extend Google Play to cover home movies, meaning I will have a one-stop shop for my music and movies. For those of you outside of the USA, when you initially sign up for Google Play, Google checks whether you are connecting from a US machine or not. If not, you are not allowed to use the service. Using TOR servers and web proxies do not fool it. Therefore, you may need a friend in the USA to help you with the initial log in. Once you set it up that first time, Google never checks your location again.

Conclusions

While it is still early days, I could not be happier with my decision to ‘go cloud’. E-mail, past and present, is available anywhere. My large backlog of data is only a browser away and, for those data which I need offline access for, this also is being auto-synced to the cloud and to all my other devices (personal slate, work pc, wife’s laptop etc.) Any one of my devices could catch fire tomorrow and I would not care. Also, moving to a new device is simply a case of telling it about my Office 365 account, telling it my live ID (for SkyDrive) and setting up Mesh. All the associated file movements happen automatically.

If you are considering doing something similar the barriers are quite low from a cost perspective (all of this is costing me just US$6 per month for e-mail and nothing for data/music) and there is nothing stopping you having your data in both SkyDrive and on a local store to see how it goes. My recommendation is give it a try and, like when you buy insurance, my prediction is you will feel a zen-like relief that all the worries are now someone else’s problem.

Microsoft’s Polar Data Centres and World Wireless System

 

Introduction

This past month has been quite unique for me with many messages going back and forth between myself and various Microsoft departments. Microsoft, being the reasonable people they are, has given me the green light to talk about one of their major projects. They were planning to announce it at the Worldwide Partner Conference (WPC) but are happy for some information to be leaked early as a bit of a teaser i.e. what was talked about at the MVP Summit plus a few bits I have gathered from the net to put the pieces together.

How It All Began

Back in December, Microsoft announced the dates of the MVP Summit and sent out their usual pack of information about what products were going to be covered, the agenda, likely topics etc. My pack had an additional insert referring to a ‘special feedback session’ on the Wednesday (29 February). As I discovered a little later, only a few of us in the CRM MVP group had this. It also included a ‘special NDA’ agreement.

I am yet to discover how it happened but, in their rush to put the inserts in the pack, Microsoft appears to have used one of their standard journalist embargo documents as a template. The upshot being while the standard MVP NDA essentially says I can say nothing until Microsoft makes information public, this one just restricted public disclosure for 30 days i.e. until the end of March.

Here is the first page of the document (I’ve blurred out the body as it mentions dates and deadlines for the project which Microsoft do not want to be made public yet.)

Essentially you signed the document either physically or online and you were good for the three-hour session on the Wednesday morning.

How Did the Session Go?

The session was attended by MVPs across various ‘Microsoft cloud products’ e.g. SQL/Windows Azure, Dynamics CRM etc. but many may not have realised the loophole yet but, once they see my article, I imagine they will all be writing a piece on their take on the session.

The plan was for key Azure staff to be present but the Azure Leap Year bug meant all were out of action. However, key staff on the project, including some who had been on site, were there to present. We heard from two speakers mainly, both from Microsoft’s research division; Dr. Charles Lippit who specialises in transmission technologies and Max Bosgrove who was one of the pioneers of the server container design used by Microsoft throughout its data centers.

So What Is The Big News?

In short, Microsoft are halfway through building two major data centers at the north and south pole and using the Earth’s magnetic field for transmission. The centers will be complete near to the time of WPC (July this year), thus the announcement timing.

Given the technical nature of the subject, Microsoft only invited MVPs with an established physics or electrical engineering background. Of the CRM MVPs, two of us qualified. Myself (my university degree was in quantum mechanics) and George Doubinski (whose background is in nuclear physics).

Where Specifically Are They Located?

While the magnetic poles do shift over time, Microsoft has located the bases as close as they practically can to the magnetic poles’ current locations. In the Antarctic, this is Vostok Station. Its proximity to the south pole and existing magnetic research equipment there made it ideal. Drilling towards the magnetic pole, and also towards the essential thermal vents, had been started by the Russian researchers with drilling stopped last year with only a few hundred meters of ice to go (http://www.jalcnews.com/?p=3204).

In the Arctic, construction has begun on Ellesmere Island. The northern facility is starting from scratch, with learning from the construction of the southern base feeding into the design on the northern base.

How Will It Work?

Microsoft’s aim is for the stations to be self-operating, given the remote location. No ice trucks in Antarctica. Fortunately, Microsoft has already worked on a similar project with Antarctica New Zealand and extended it for remote management.

The container server farms, used by Microsoft in their data centers, were built to allow for scalability. A secondary advantage is that they are easy to ship and are ‘rugged-ised’ making them perfect for remote locations. Initially Microsoft is planning four containers at each location, giving a total of 8,000 servers. As Dynamics CRM Online runs on 1,000 servers (which seems incredulous to me), this should be plenty for an initial trial. Data will be backed up to the other station for redundancy.

Obviously cooling will not be a problem and the low temperatures will allow the servers to operate very efficiently. The lack of moisture in the air and the high wind means, in the case of Vostok Station, the air is blown directly through the server cluster. The plan is to emulate a similar setup at Ellesmere. The containers are traditionally water-cooled so to make them air-cooled required some minor modification.

In terms of power, while Vostok has its own power station, this would need to be manned for refuelling which rules it out. Both locations have geothermal sources so the plan is to use steam from these to generate power, as well as harness wind power, if available. After a bit of digging on the internet, I found this research with Microsoft’s Paul Allen as one of the investors. I am guessing this may be the source for this innovation. The heat removed from the servers will be recycled to either assist with steam generation or to heat the living quarters of the researchers.

In the case of the southern station, the thermal source lies underneath Lake Vostok. The plan is to work with the researchers to continue the drilling, ensure the lake remains untouched, while accessing the heat source for power generation. In return, Microsoft is funding all research conducted on Lake Vostok by the governing body, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR).

Ellesmere has sulphur springs which will be used in the same way, funding research and working with the University of Calgary's Arctic Institute of North America.

How Will Transmission Work?

This is the part of the project that piques my interest the most. In short, a large magnetic coil will be placed in the ground and be used to modulate the Earth’s magnetic field in much the same way a transmitter modifies a carrier wave to send a signal.

It turns out that the power required for this is quite small as the Earth is already generating the ‘carrier signal’ and the coil is merely fluctuating it to transmit data. While Microsoft believes they could cancel the magnetic field altogether, they see no benefit in this (and given the magnetic field of the Earth protects us from solar radiation via the Van Allen belt, that is probably a good thing). They also mentioned the ‘inductive feedback’ had a remote chance of reversing the magnetic poles but this was also dismissed as extremely unlikely.

The ‘signal’ then goes everywhere where a compass works. While large iron and magnetite deposits can interfere with the signal it is believed this will only affect a small fraction of urban areas.

Microsoft is referring to this as the WWS or World Wireless System. With exclusive access to the poles and a transmission system which can reach the world with minimal overheads, Microsoft sees this as their ‘next big thing’.

When Will The Project Be Complete?

This is the bit that Microsoft is very quiet about and thus the blurring of the NDA document. Construction can only really happen in the locations in the local summer, assuming weather conditions are right. This is why the Vostok data center compound is all but finished but Ellesmere is just beginning. Power generation via the thermal vents will be likely finalised next year but Microsoft is making no commitments on this.

Conclusions

My thoughts are this is an example of everything that makes Microsoft the great organisation it is. Innovative, game changing design combined with collaboration with government bodies and research organisations to generate a positive outcome for all involved. While Microsoft’s heritage is with traditional, on premise servers, this play, much like the Kinect play in the game console market, has the potential to put them in a commanding position of both the PaaS and SaaS markets.

Microsoft have created a web site for the WWS project with a lot more details which can be found here. Have a great day

Creating Icons for Dynamics CRM 2011

 

***STOP PRESS***

If you follow my tweets you will have seen the odd mention of a session at the MVP Summit regarding the new polar data centers Microsoft is rolling out. I am still under the embargo/NDA from Summit (and probably should not have mentioned as much as I have) but have finally been given the green light to talk about it now that Convergence is finished so this will be coming out next week. Serious game-changing technology on many levels and very exciting for Azure and CRM Online customers. Not to be missed. Now back to regular broadcasting…

The Problem

One of the key strengths of Dynamics CRM is the ability to go beyond the traditional domains of salesforce automation, case management and direct marketing. To give an example, the last two projects I worked on involved:

• Contract execution for an international transportation company i.e. sourcing the goods, sourcing the transport and ensuring all customs regulations were followed
• Management of the committees and the associated projects in developing international standards for industry

Both of these were pure CRM systems i.e. minimal third party add-ons and required minimal code. Neither fell into the classic baskets for CRM systems but this is the norm for Dynamics CRM.

But I digress, as this is not a blog post about xRM. An inevitable consequence of going outside the traditional areas is you must create additional entities to hold the data. Entities are the ‘record types’ or, for the more traditional of us the additional database tables to hold different kinds of data (it is not as simple as one entity = one table in Dynamics CRM but the analogy is sound).

Creating the entity is easy, as is linking it to existing record types in CRM. You simply hit the new button and give it a name.

One of the trickier aspects is updating the icons for the new entity. Sure, there is the ‘Update Icons’ button on the top of the entity screen but what then?

Well the screen that pops up highlights the problem nicely.

For any given entity we need to create:

• A PNG file of 16x16 pixels
• An ICO file of 32x32 pixels
• A PNG file of 66x48 pixels

but there is nothing, directly in the product, to help us do it.

The Solution (almost)

For version 4, Tanguy (an all-round great guy) wrote an excellent article on how to use the Microsoft Demonstration Tool to automatically generate the icons and upload them to CRM. In fact the article was so good, these guys ripped it off a year later

Despite our German plagiarists publishing the article under a 2011 blog, the tool does not quite work for CRM 2011. While you can connect the tool to an on-premise implementation, it will not connect to an online one. Also. while you can connect, you cannot directly upload.

So what do you do?

Well, assuming you have access to an on-premise implementation (perhaps you have a copy of the CRM demo VPC from a friendly partner) you can still create the icons.

First of all, download the Demonstration Tool program, run the exe and click the link at the top to connect.

The box that pops up asks for the usual login, password etc. Once in, click the Icon maker icon to take you to the icon maker page.

Click on the first Select Image… and add in a picture. Then click the ‘Use for all icons’.

The image above is taken directly from Tanguy (saved me firing up my VPC). He has chosen to click the ‘Add Background’ box as well. I generally don’t but it is up to you.

If this was CRM 4, at this point you would click the ‘Publish to CRM…’ load up the icons and congratulate yourself on a job well done. No such joy for us CRM 2011 folk. We need to click the ‘Save…’ button. The usual file save box opens up and while it will give all indication that it is just saving a png file it will, in fact, save three files, with semi-meaningful names (‘application’, ‘outlook’ and ‘form’), for manual uploading to CRM.

Loading up Icons

CRM 2011 treats images as Web Resources. So, in order to load an image up for our entity, we must add it as a Web Resource. Generally I do this on the fly. So firstly, go to the entity and click on the ‘Update Icons’ button. Now click on the first lookup.

Click the ‘New’ button to add a new Web Resource. Click OK a lot and you will have your first image in CRM. Rinse and repeat for the other two lookups and you are done.

Conclusions

The process for adding custom icons to CRM has not changed significantly, from memory, since version 3 so it is a little clunky. If Dynamics CRM was getting a performance review from its boss, this would fall under the ‘needs improvement’ column (and I am sure it is on the list back in Redmond). However, assuming you have access to an on-premise install, you can generate the required icon files relatively painlessly with the version 4 Demonstration Tools. Download it and go from to . If you feel Microsoft should invest some time in improving the icon updating experience, you can also drop by at http://connect.microsoft.com and add in a request. This list is the driver for new features in the product so have your say.

Using An ‘OR’ Condition In Workflows

The Problem

One of the problems with workflows is that,while you can group conditions with an OR in Advanced Find, you do not have the same ability within workflows.

Here are the advanced find grouping buttons.

Here is the workflow box for a ‘Check Condition’ step.

We can list multiple conditions but these are automatically grouped with an ‘AND’ clause i.e. all must be fulfilled.

This issue has come up in the forums in the past and, usually I recommend the creation of two workflows: one for each condition. While this approximates an ‘OR’ it is a lot of work.

The problem with this solution is we now have two workflows to maintain which means more overhead.

An Alternative Solution

De Morgan’s Law tells us that ‘A OR B’ is logically equivalent to NOT (NOT A AND NOT B). So how does this help us?

Well, to deal with the first ‘NOT’ we use the ‘Default Action’, which gives us an ‘Otherwise’ to our ‘If-Then’

Therefore, if we say ‘if (NOT A AND NOT B) then do nothing otherwise do x’ we have a winner.

So, in practice, let us say we want the workflow to trigger if either of one of two tickboxes are ticked. For an advanced find it is east to find records where Tickbox A or Tickbox B has been ticked.

For our workflow it is going to read thus:

If we trigger this off of the two fields changing, if neither of the fields are ticked, nothing happens but if either or both are ticked our action happens, which is what we want.

Doing the Maths

If you have a more complex problem, this is how to approach it.

First of all we have De Morgan’s Law: A OR B = NOT (NOT A AND NOT B)

Let us define our logical tests:

A: Tickbox A = Yes
B: Tickbox B = Yes

Therefore:

NOT A: Tickbox A = No
NOT B: Tickbox B = No

So Tickbox A = Yes OR Tickbox B = Yes is equivalent to NOT (Tickbox A = No AND Tickbox B = No) and this is expressed as we saw above using an if-then-otherwise step.

Conclusions

Using this technique, while a little harder to read (although the comment line can help) we maintain just one workflow, saving on future administration.  The technique is also applicable to any condition which there is a straightforward ‘opposite’ version of and can be extended to multiple attributes, not just two, without having to resort to creating multiple, mostly identical workflows.

Triggering a Workflow off a Field’s Initial Population

The Problem

When triggering workflows, there are seven options:

• When the record is created
• When the status of the record is changed
• When the record is assigned (ownership changes)
• When a field on the record changes
• When the record is deleted
• Manually (an on-demand workflow)
• As part of another workflow (child workflow)

This covers a wealth of scenarios. However, there are times when we need more. Recently I worked on a project where we needed to trigger off the initial population of a field. The company was, in essence, a courier company. Customers booked international deliveries and, while the bookings were entered into the system when taken, it was only later that my client knew which plane was taking the goods.

Once the details of the plane was entered in the system, escalation checks needed to be put in place to ensure a paperwork was completed on time, deliveries reached their destination on time etc.

The obvious choice was to trigger off a field change but, if the plane details changed prior to take-off, this would trigger two escalation workflows as it is not possible in a workflow to check what the value was prior to field population. If the details changed a number of times, suddenly users are receiving multiple notifications for the same delivery. This was undesirable.

The Solution

The first option in dealing with this scenario is to use a check box on the record. When the workflow is first triggered, the tickbox is ticked and future workflows, checking for the tickbox no longer fire. Another related option is to have a field keep a copy of the previous value, managed through workflows. I outline this approach here.

This would have worked but there were a number of date fields that I needed to trigger off (about ten in total) and the overhead of adding another ten checkbox fields or adding fields and workflows was a bit high for me.

In the end I settled for a different approach; instead of using the ‘field change’ event, which can be triggered multiple times, I used the ‘record creation’ event which will only ever trigger once. The screenshot below shows the trigger on the ‘Vessel ETD’ field; the plane’s estimated time of departure (ok, so the project is on a v4 system, but the approach also works 2011).

Here we are saying when the delivery contract is entered into the system, fire the workflow and then wait until the ‘Vessel ETD’ field is populated. When this happens, fire a number of ‘checks and measures’ workflows.

These child workflows then kick in. Here is one of them:

In this case, once populated, we check the contract is a parent contract (the system allows for subcontracts on the same flight contract), double check the field contains data (not really needed) and then it sets up a reminder a couple of weeks before departure.

The advantage of this approach is that we guarantee that the workflow will only trigger once and, if we have a number of checks and measures running off of the same field, it is quite easy to manage this through the use of child workflows stemming from the one trigger workflow.

The disadvantage of this approach is, if there is significant time between the creation of the record and the population of the trigger field, we have a workflow in a waiting state gobbling up processor cycles. This is more of an issue if we have a high volume of contracts, which I did not have in this case.

Conclusions

If you are needing to trigger off the initial population of a field but do not want to fire the same workflow when the field gets updated there are a few approaches with workflows before resorting to code. Using a check box can work but can be tricky to manage and adds the overhead of a bunch of fields which are just used for workflow management. Adding a mini-audit function can also work but requires additional workflow and fields to be added to the system, again adding to workflow management.

By triggering off of the creation of the record, and waiting for the field to be filled in before acting, we create an intuitive system with minimal overhead in terms of fields or workflows which can be easily adjusted as the processes of the business evolve.

Salesforce’s Full Year Results

Its that time again when Marc Benioff comes out and tells us how great the revenue growth for Salesforce has been. It also means its time for me to pour over the numbers and see what else is happening.

To see how Salesforce fared last quarter, look here.

Full Year Results (2011)

Saesforce refer to this quarter as ‘Q4 2012’. The reason being that they end their financial year at the end of January. I am sure there is a good reason for this, I just do not know it.

For the details of the numbers, go here.

Unfortunately for Marc, Kris Kringle did not deliver the bumper end of year he needed to keep Salesforce out of the red and the business made a $11.6m loss on the back of $2.3b in revenue (about 0.5% loss). Here is the graph.

It seems the dam is still leaking but it is not getting any worse. The loss for the last three quarters has been around $4m and appears to be constant. In other words, while revenues are growing rapidly, the expenses of the business are keeping pace (but no longer overtaking). When one considers that in the two quarters prior to these profits were eroding at $10m per quarter, this is an improvement, although still no an ideal position to be in, in my opinion.

Earnings Conference Call

Listening to the conference call we heard:

• David Hadlick, Head of Investor Relations
• ‘Outstanding’ quarter
• Marc Benioff
• ‘Gorgeous finish’
• Revenue growth
• Cashflow increase
• 2500 additional employees
• Lots of large transactions this quarter
• Raised guidance, $3b revenue this year
• A few well known names examples of new customers
• Second largest market share, taken from SAP, for CRM
• 45 billion transactions in the cloud
• Graham Smith
• ‘Outstanding fourth quarter’
• non-sales cloud business more than 40% of business
• Some non-GAAP statistics
• Cashflow up
• ‘Great year with huge wins’
• Questions
• 9 figure deal with an ‘Illinois-based insurance company’
• Benioff: ‘committed to increase our margins’ (but not right now)
• Benioff: Wants deals of all sizes
• Benioff: Focussed on current markets, not emerging markets

Obviously, everyone, including the analysts love the results (despite their share transactions suggesting otherwise). Other than the report of non-GAAP EPS and the great ‘margin vs growth’ question, there was barely a mention of profit but the constant drone of revenue and non-GAAP statistics. Benioff, again, affirmed that he is laser-focussed on growth and, while making a profit is a good idea, it is not an idea to act on right now.

The idea of consolidating existing markets rather than invest in emerging ones is an interesting one so it will be interesting to see how that turns out. Given China’s growth and ever-increasing prominence on the world’s stage, the Salesforce play may win the battle but I am not sure it will win the war.

One thing that was conspicuous in its absence was the mention of Microsoft. While Marc was happy to put the knife in SAP and Oracle and the wisdom of their acquisitions. Either he no longer considers Microsoft a threat or he sees the others as the ‘low hanging fruit’ in terms of spinning a marketing pitch. Other than dismissing Microsoft’s focus on China, Dynamics CRM went unscathed.

Conclusions

I will hold off looking at the subscriptions until post-Convergence as there is the chance Microsoft will actually provide some subscription numbers. My previous prediction of a full year loss was realised.

Based on the results and Salesforce’s reaction to it, the good ship Salesforce continues on its course. The leaks have been patched and the rate of sinking has been held at a constant. The only shift seems to be the competitive focus, which are the incumbents SAP and Oracle, rather than the CRM-upstart Microsoft.

The idea of ‘Minneapolis over Mumbai’ is an interesting one but, again, like their profitability, not sustainable in the longer term. Salesforce must eventually change course or they will hit an iceberg.

What Are The Directors Thinking? Microsoft vs Salesforce.com

What if we knew what the directors of public companies i.e. ones on the stock exchange, really thought about the fortunes of their company? Sure they often release press statements saying how excited they are about the future and how great their company’s products are but how can we work out what is passion and what is spin?

One tool to do this is their insider trading. We often think of the term ‘insider trading’ as a bad one or something illegal. In fact all it means is that someone with better knowledge than the market is buying or selling shares. In the case of the executives and directors of companies it is inevitable that they have knowledge of their companies which would be detrimental for them to reveal publicly. Yet, it is desirable for them to engage in the buying and selling of shares in their company. After all, they are often own significant fractions of the companies they work for and it would be difficult to restrict them in buying or selling this ownership (which is what shares of a company are: packets of ownership).

To get around this problem of people with better knowledge of the market needing to be able to buy and sell shares, the rule is simply this: if they trade in share of a company where they are a director or executive, they must publicly declare the trade to the market. Unfortunately they are under no obligation to state why they engaged in that transaction.

So Why Do People Buy and Sell Shares?

My thoughts on this are strongly influenced by two writers: Warren Buffett (through his Berkshire Hathaway annual letters) and Benjamin Graham (through his book ‘The Intelligent Investor’). Given Graham was the lecturer of Buffett, the two are closely aligned on this subject. Essentially, the reasons people buy or sell shares are pretty simple.

People buy shares because:

• They think the company is a good investment e.g. the share price will go up faster than the other companies they could buy shares in or the dividends the share pays (think of this as ‘interest’) is better than what they could get elsewhere

People sell shares because:

• They think the company is a poor investment e.g. the share price will go down or not increase as fast as the price of other companies or the dividends the share pays are not as good as what they could get elsewhere
• They need the money

In short, if ‘insiders’ are buying this is an indication of a good investment. If ‘insiders’ are selling it MAY indicate a bad investment.

Using this as our measuring stick, we can see if the statements made by the leaders of Microsoft and salesforce.com are in alignment with their share trades.

Round One: Microsoft Sells

For this analysis I have used the insider trades for 2011. The reason for this specific year is that it was easy to find the numbers and pump them into Excel by using Yahoo finance. Here is the link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT+Insider+Transactions. For salesforce.com you get the same URL and replace ‘MSFT’ with ‘CRM’.

If you want more years, another great source is insidermonkey.com.

The only downside with using the Yahoo finance table is that they have put footnote references above the total dollar value where the trades were done across a number of share prices. The upshot of this is if the table shows ‘2,253,000²‘ this pastes into Excel as ‘2,253,002’. Given the large numbers at play I have not worried too much about it as this will not have a significant effect on the results.

	GATES WILLIAM H III	SINOFSKY STEVEN J	BRUMMEL LISA E	MUNDIE CRAIG J	SMITH BRADFORD L	TURNER BRIAN KEVIN	DELBENE KURT D	NADELLA SATYA	BROD FRANK H	KLEIN PETER S	PANKE HELMUT
2011
Qtr1	557,750,000	46,523,784	1,137,288	25,666,868	6,968,648		3,739,580				11,269
Qtr2	502,449,999		3,261,174						16,822		11,263
Qtr3	554,500,000	1,665,847	24,675,198	1,401,692	1,479,759	5,645,006	918,734	1,602,411	1,094,876	642,329	11,249
Qtr4	537,800,000	29,770,270				1,082,400		210,966			11,265
Grand Total	2,152,499,999	77,959,901	29,073,660	27,068,560	8,448,407	6,727,406	4,658,314	1,813,377	1,111,698	642,329	45,046

This shows the $ value of shares sold, each quarter, of directors and executive officers.

So who are these people?:

• William H Gates III: Otherwise known as Bill Gates, Chairman of the Board
• Helmut Panke: member of the Board of Directors
• Steven J Sinofsky: President, Windows and Windows Live Division
• Lisa E Brummel: Chief People Officer
• Craig J Mundie: Chief Research and Strategy Officer
• Bradford L Smith: General Counsel and Executive vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs
• Brian Kevin Turner: COO
• Kurt D Delbene: President, Microsoft Office Division
• Satya Nadella: President, Server and Tools Business
• Frank H Brod: Corporate Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Accounting Office
• Peter S Klein: CFO

We have two members of the board (out of nine) and nine executives.

The top four sellers (Bill Gates, Steven Sinofsky, Lisa Brummel and Craig Mundie) sold a significant number of shares, in terms of dollar value in 2011 (accounting for 99% of the shares sold).

The reason Bill Gates sells his shares is well documented. The half a billion dollars per quarter goes to fund the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

Steven Sinofsky’s reasons are unknown but, given the rise of the iPad, perhaps he though it was time to cash in some of his stock and diversify into Apple.

Lisa Brummel did the majority of her selling in the third quarter of 2011 and runs Human Resources at Microsoft. It is not clear why she needed $29m in 2011 an it is unlikely it was to cover a few bills.

Craig Mundie also sold a similar amount to Lisa. His reasons are also unclear.

A special mention should also go to Steve Ballmer, who, at the end of 2010, sold about $2b in shares. While Steve insists he is fully behind Microsoft and its products, it is clear he feels his personal money (or at least $2b of it) is better invested elsewhere.

While this does not look good, there is one factor which could explain the sales and that is Bill Gates continuous sales of lots of shares. Here is the Microsoft stock price for the last ten years:

This is one of the least interesting share graphs I have ever seen. The Microsoft price never varies much from $28 per share (except around 2008 where there was a small blip). If you have someone in the market with a large supply compared to demand, it is going to drive the price down. The fact that Microsoft has maintained its price, despite Bill’s constant stock selling it a testament to the robust nature of the organisation. However, if I also have a large amount of stock, I can understand that I may feel that my money could be growing faster somewhere else.

Round Two: Salesforce Sells

Here it is.

	RAMSEY CRAIG	SMITH GRAHAM	HARRIS PARKER	VAN VEENENDAAL FRANK	HU GEORGE	KOPLOW HILARIE A.	TOMLINSON LAWRENCE	CONWAY CRAIG	SCLAVOS STRATTON D	YOUNG SHIRLEY	SCHELLHASE DAVID
2011
Qtr1		4,394,985	660,880	4,793,610	1,875,759	79,195		95,400			275,770
Qtr2	132,410,004	5,483,121	273,121	4,173,463	3,083,660	1,251,134	1,862,415	316,566	446,940	520,590	132,813
Qtr3		38,055,634	50,723	62,210	131,675	1,283,296	1,509,750	319,852	178,590
Qtr4		23,537,987	60,260,057	120,160	1,041,174	991,474		268,237	170,190
Grand Total	132,410,004	71,471,727	61,244,781	9,149,443	6,132,268	3,605,099	3,372,165	1,000,055	795,720	520,590	408,583

In this case we have:

• Craig Ramsey: member of the Board of Directors
• Lawrence Tomlinson: member of the Board of Directors
• Craig Conway: member of the Board of Directors
• Stratton D Sclavos: member of the Board of Directors
• Shirley Young: member of the Board of Directors
• Graham Smith: Executive Vice President and CFO
• Parker Harris: Executive Vice President, Technology
• Frank Van Veenendaal: President, Worldwide Sales and Services
• George Hu: COO
• Hilarie A. Koplow: Executive Vice President, Worldwide Sales
• David Schellhase: formerly Executive Vice President, Legal (now at Groupon)

Here we have five members of the board (out of nine) and six officers. I have an issue with over half the board (i.e. those responsible for the strategic direction and financial health of an organisation) selling out of the company they are directing.

In the case of salesforce we need to go to the top seven (Craig Ramsey, Graham Smith, Parker Harris, Frank Van Veenendaal, George Hu, Hilarie A. Koplow, Lawrence Tomlinson) to cover 99% of sales.

Here is the much more interesting ten year graph for salesforce.

A few things to note. Firstly, we do not have the full ten years because salesforce.com has not been publicly traded for the ten years. Also, other than the same blip that temporarily sank Microsoft’s price near the end of 2008, the salesforce share price continued to rise until 2011 when it has flattened off a little.

I can find no public comments by the insiders as to why they sold their shares in 2011.

As to the behaviour exhibited by both sets of insiders, one thing you can see is that while Microsoft insiders sold sporadically (only four out of the eleven selling in three or more quarters), the salesforce insiders were more frequent in their selling (seven out of eleven sold in three or more quarters).

Graham Smith, the CFO of salesforce I find the most interesting.

You might remember back in September 2011 I summarised the transcript of the Q2 results for salesforce(http://leontribe.blogspot.com.au/2011/09/does-salesforce-have-their-head-in.html). The transcript was from August 18, 2011.

Graham Smith featured prominently in that call describing the salesforce results as an ‘exceptionally strong quarter’.

So, if the results of salesforce were so strong, why was Graham selling close to $10m in stock prior to the results (or thereabouts) and a little over $60m in shares afterwards? I do not know the answers and, maybe, Graham does need the pocket change but the timing is dreadful in terms of the mixed message it sends.

The name that is missing from this is our good friend Marc Benioff who is both a director, being the chairman of the board and an officer, being the CEO. In Australia, this situation of being a director and officer does occur but it is not as common as the USA. The reason being it is seen as a potential conflict of interest. A simple example is that of compensation. The board generally sets the compensation levels for executive officers. If the people deciding the compensation are the ones receiving it, there are clear terms of reference issues. I have no idea whether this specific example is an issue at salesforce, I simply cite it as an example.

So did Marc sell shares in 2011? No he did not. However, he had been busy selling shares up to the start of 2011, despite the stellar performance of the stock over the years. Back in 2006, Marc held 22.8 million shares (http://accounting.smartpros.com/x53957.xml). By the end of 2010 he had sold down to the last ten million and then stopped. Here is the video where he is asked why he sells so much stock and he deftly avoids answering the question completely (around the eight minute mark http://allthingsd.com/20110304/video-marc-benioff-answers-his-critics-with-a-little-help-from-jim-cramer/)

The fact is despite his exuberance for the salesforce model and despite the stellar performance of the stock, Marc was, until 2011, regularly selling his ownership of the company. Either he had doubts about his own hype, he had big debts or he knew of a better investment than one which had increased its share price five-fold in five years (around a 38% annual return).

Microsoft and Salesforce Buys

Not one officer or director at either Microsoft or salesforce bought their own stock in 2011. With the steady price of Microsoft and the flattened performance of salesforce it is understandable but still a little surprising.

Conclusions

Perhaps my biases are shining through loud and clear but I understand why Microsoft insiders would not be overly impressed with their Microsoft stock. The price does not move and, with Bill generating a couple of billion a year through the divestment of Microsoft ownership, the hill the stock has to climb is just a little bit steeper.

As for salesforce, I am stumped. Taking the CFO and Marc as the champions of the company, both consider salesforce to be strategically and financially sound. The stock market agrees and yet they, and many of the board, are offloading ownership on a regular basis.

Perhaps, like me, the salesforce insiders feel the stock price is overvalued. Therefore, while they are confident of the future, they are not confident in the share price. If so, they would do well to communicate this to the market rather than let others hold on to their dreams while the insiders know a nightmare is coming, but get rich before it arrives.

Perhaps I ask too much of company executives in asking they reveal their motives as well as their actions.